A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
