It was eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him for missing a through-ball. During that period, with the team went six without a win, the question was if his displays were a sign or the reason for Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. When Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The team continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to address. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, even as the positive results have stacked up.
According to the data, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club that have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look strangely fragile – but currently the margins are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it happened in London, and again when facing United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival the club have to face as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.
This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.
